Going short on GBPUSD. My reasoning is as follows:
On the technical side of things, I identified an inside-bar / false break set-up on the daily chart. In addition to this promising sign, the false break candle was also a pinbar candle, AND this occurred near the top of a current channel that GU has been trending in. If I had to call it bullish or bearish, I would say bullish...but mostly it seems to be in this channel lately, so until it breaks out of that I don't think that it is too risky to go short. My stoploss of 150 pips is plenty big to give me some room for price fluctuation and is set near the top of this channel which is also a significant support/resistance level. My profit target is about two times my risk. Normally I would do three times, but since this is technically against the prevailing trend...I'll be more conservative.
As for fundamental support, this is difficult, because most pairs are in a chaotic ranging pattern right now due to all of the economic problems being experienced around the world...seriously, noone seems to know what to do. Price may be consolidating and preparing for an upturn, but anything could happen - with the news causing huge volatility practically everyday. I would go crazy if I were trying to trade on fundamentals right now. I always rely most heavily on technical support to make my decisions anyway, so that helps me in this kind of environment.
One of my #1 goals of my training right now, is to control my emotions while in a trade. So, I am not risking much, and I am practicing set and forget. In other words, my stoploss is set, my order is set, my profit target is set, and now I must leave it alone for better or worse. I am either right or wrong. Current Demo Account Balance: $2897.92 (started with $2500)
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